Crypto analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow on X) argues that DOGE stays in a long-duration advance that has not but delivered its terminal impulse.
In a video evaluation revealed on October 1, the analyst lays out a multi-cycle framework constructed on logarithmic charting, Elliott Wave construction, and Fibonacci extensions, concluding {that a} run towards roughly $4 per coin is probably the most possible end result of the present bull section. “It’s all math,” he says, including that liquidity dynamics and market construction—not simplistic notions of market capitalization—will decide how far the transfer extends.
Dogecoin To $4?
The analyst opens by dispelling social-media hypothesis about his id—“though I sound like Elon Musk, I’m not Elon Musk. I’m only a random cat”—earlier than pivoting to the core declare: the long-term Dogecoin chart on a log scale exhibits three pronounced rounding-bottom cycles, every resolving increased, with the third now in progress.
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He characterizes the current construction as a sequence of cup-and-handle formations inside that broader rounding base. “Throughout this spherical of bottoms, we carry on having these sorts of cups and deal with sort patterns. And each single time when you might have a deal with… individuals get extraordinarily, extraordinarily bitter and unhappy. And I’ve simply been shopping for the deal with all the way in which down,” he says, noting his accumulation started “years” in the past and that subsequent pullbacks remained shopping for alternatives throughout the cycle view.
On the middle of the thesis is an Elliott Wave roadmap that treats the 2021 mania as Wave Three, a protracted corrective section as Wave 4, and the rising uptrend as the beginning of Wave 5. The analyst back-tests the construction utilizing Fibonacci retracements and extensions on a log chart. He highlights that Wave Two retraced to the 0.5 degree—“a standard retracement for wave two”—whereas the Wave Three prime aligned with a 1.618 extension of Wave One, the traditional marker of an prolonged third wave. From there, the market corrected to roughly the 0.618 retracement—a textbook anchor for a Wave 4 pullback—earlier than starting the current advance.
As a result of Wave Three already prolonged to 1.618, he argues Wave 5 must be shorter in relative phrases, making hyper-extended targets much less seemingly. Utilizing the log-scale Fibonacci ladder from the Wave 4 base, he proposes a goal hall between the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions, with the latter round $4.13 rising as his base case. “I feel wherever from 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 could be an affordable goal with the almost certainly situation… the 1.618, which goes to be $4.13,” he explains, whereas permitting for 2 various outcomes—a truncated fifth that stalls close to the prior excessive round $0.76, or a extra subdued attain to the 1.272/1.414 zone.
The log-scale context is central to his methodology. He cautions that linear arithmetic with nominal costs can lead analysts astray when evaluating multi-order-of-magnitude cycles. He additionally emphasizes a sensible set off degree throughout the present construction: “as soon as it pushes through 33 cents, it’s going to hit a few of the higher targets.” In his view, DOGE discovered assist close to a 1.236–1.272 area on the log ladder and is trying to reassert itself above the 1.618 band—an space he frames as a pivotal resistance-turned-launchpad throughout prior cycle advances.
The Math Behind It
Anticipating skepticism across the implied market capitalization—roughly half a trillion {dollars} at $4—Cantonese Cat argues that cap-table arithmetic is routinely misinterpreted as a funding requirement relatively than a mirrored image of marginal pricing beneath prevailing liquidity. “I feel lots of people assume that you must have $100 billion to pump Doge to $100 billion market cap. That’s not the way it works,” he says.
As a substitute, he attributes the trail of least resistance to the interaction of derivatives, credit score circumstances, leverage, and the broader liquidity regime. “When you’ve got a liquidity situation, in the event that they maintain printing cash, if the market cycle helps this, you don’t want half a trillion {dollars} to push Doge to half a trillion greenback market cap.”
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He concedes that the Could 2021 peak concerned “plenty of irrational exuberance” however contends that comparable dynamics might recur. “Cash is what it’s. It’s an summary idea. It’s based mostly on derivatives, relies on leverage, relies on market situation, relies on liquidity. So far as I’m involved, simply glide.”
There are essential caveats embedded in his name. He stresses that Wave 5 targets on a log scale resist the form of linear add-ons some merchants use, and he underscores path dependency: invalidations can emerge if DOGE fails to reclaim and maintain key bands or if macro liquidity tightens materially. He additionally notes provide dilution—Doge’s ongoing issuance—although he treats it as a secondary consideration in a sentiment- and liquidity-driven supercycle.
The choice outcomes he outlines are express: a truncated fifth close to $0.76 would mark a conservative terminal, whereas a stall at 1.272 or 1.414 would nonetheless ship a materially increased excessive with out matching Wave Three’s extension.
Even with these guardrails, the thrust of the evaluation is unequivocal. “The key impulse of wave 5 hasn’t actually fairly occurred fairly simply but,” he says, framing the market as early within the terminal advance of a multi-year construction. He reinforces that his framework is empirical relatively than aspirational. “Use your creativeness, observe technicals, it’s all math,” he concludes.
For Dogecoin, that math factors to a breakout above $0.33 as the following near-term inform and a probabilistic arc that terminates close to the $4 deal with if liquidity circumstances cooperate.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.254.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com