Key Takeaways
Bitcoin nonetheless sits on $1.4 trillion in unrealized revenue. With a key macro catalyst off the desk, is conviction in additional upside beginning to crack?
A pivotal day simply closed out. The Federal Reserve stored charges unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. It was proper in step with expectations after June’s sticky 0.3% core CPI.
Powell’s ‘charge reduce’ pause places Bitcoin’s worth on Maintain—Is the rally over?
As anticipated, Bitcoin [BTC] remained range-bound beneath the $120K resistance, consolidating in a decent band. On the floor, it appears to be like like bulls are absorbing volatility effectively.
However beneath the hood, long-term holders have began trimming publicity. Might it’s that LTHs are front-running macro headwinds that the broader market has but to cost in?
Powell’s pause sparks repricing throughout the curve
As AMBCrypto famous, the Fed’s hawkish lean was already priced in. Bitcoin’s muted transfer (+0.12%) mirrored a market in steadiness. No new catalyst, no quantity growth, simply chop close to resistance.
That mentioned, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s line on a potential 25bps cut in September stood out:
“We’ve made no choices about September.”
That was all it took for markets to reprice the curve. September reduce odds collapsed to 41% (from >90% a month in the past).
In the meantime, zero cuts for all of 2025 surged to 25% post-FOMC.
Supply: Kalshi
In brief, This autumn coverage easing expectations have de-rated.
No shock there both. Trump’s tariff flip-flops have solely added macro uncertainty, undercutting Bitcoin’s September breakout potential. In flip, compressing its This autumn upside asymmetry.
Assume again to September 2024.
The Fed kicked off easing with a 50 bps reduce, and BTC rallied from a $60k base to $73k by October-end. With that catalyst now priced out, Bitcoin might stay liquidity-starved heading into Q3 shut.
Bitcoin paper beneficial properties at file excessive, however conviction’s thinning
Bitcoin held structurally intact post-FOMC, however market internals are softening. The Concern & Greed Index is pulling again, signaling that danger urge for food is fading on the margins.
On-chain flows verify the shift: Lengthy-term holders (LTHs) have distributed 207,000 BTC over the previous 30 days, signaling strategic de-risking amongst high-conviction cohorts.
In the meantime, Complete Unrealized Revenue (NUPL mixture) has reached an all-time excessive of $1.4 trillion. That’s numerous latent provide. And with out contemporary catalysts, a few of it would begin coming to market.
Supply: Glassnode
Clearly, there’s so much on the road.
However with Powell backing off a September reduce and markets repricing dovish bets, the liquidity backdrop is drying up.
With out that gasoline, Bitcoin might keep caught beneath resistance, as profit-taking kicks in and conviction cools heading into Q3 shut.