Since launch, altcoins have been trying to carve out their own identity.
Notably, 2025 is finally putting that separation on full display. Even with the Altcoin Season Index trending down, a handful of names are still managing to decouple from Bitcoin [BTC], hinting at a slow shift in market structure.
Ethereum [ETH] is a prime example.
Sure, it underperformed BTC by 1.17% in Q4, but ETH has been stacking meaningful upgrades back-to-back. Against this setup, the real question is: Will this divergence finally start paying off as we head into 2026?
Market rotation highlights Ethereum’s potential
There’s an underlying shift happening in the market.
After two consecutive monthly red candles, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has fallen below the 60% resistance and is currently struggling to reclaim that level.
At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has dropped from 43 to 37 as of writing.
Normally, a falling ASI would coincide with BTC surging as investors flock to the dominant asset. This time, however, both are trending down together, suggesting the market is acting outside its usual playbook.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
According to AMBCrypto, this shift highlights ETH’s underlying strength.
Even with much of the market’s capital remaining on the sidelines, ETH.D kicked off December with a 2% jump. What’s more, the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.08%, reinforcing the thesis that Ethereum is carving out relative strength.
Why does this matter? This divergence could signal a broader shift in investor behavior toward strong Layer-1s. If on-chain metrics align, could this rotation push Ethereum higher versus Bitcoin in 2026?
While sentiment lags, Ethereum’s supply is tightly locked
ETH staking is signaling a strong long-term commitment.
On-chain metrics confirm this: ETH’s Total Value Staked (TVS) is holding steady well above 36 million, even amid broader market FUD. Put simply, investors are continuing to lock up more ETH for staking rewards and yield.
Adding to this, Ethereum’s Exchange Reserves keep shrinking. Since the start of Q4, nearly 1.2 million ETH have moved off exchanges, signaling a strong, long-term commitment from HOLDers.
Source: Glassnode
Notably, the resilience becomes even more obvious when compared to Bitcoin. As the chart above shows, only 8.84% of Ethereum remains on exchanges, roughly half of BTC’s 14.8%.
This clearly points to a long-term “HODL and stake” mentality among ETH holders. Simply put, Ethereum is locking up a much higher share of its supply compared to Bitcoin, creating tighter liquidity in the market.
In this context, Ethereum’s resilience on the charts isn’t a fluke. Even amid broader market FUD, this conviction is coming from the fundamentals. Hence, the question arises: Could this divergence finally start paying off?
On-chain metrics signal ETH divergence from BTC
For Ethereum, 2025 is shaping up to be around two major rollouts.
The first was the Pectra upgrade, followed by the Fusaka upgrade. On-chain metrics show the impact: Weekly transactions have climbed from 1.55 million to 1.66 million MoM, reflecting stronger network adoption.
Layered on top of ETH’s accumulation trends, it’s clear these upgrades are driving meaningful on-chain activity. In short, Ethereum is reinforcing its position as a dominant L1, with both usage and long-term locked supply.
Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)
Against this setup, a bullish 2026 is looking more likely.
On the technical side, Ethereum is starting to diverge from Bitcoin, backed by on-chain fundamentals like rising network engagement and accumulation trends that are tightening liquid ETH supply.
In this context, Ethereum seems well-positioned to benefit from both network growth and capital rotation, potentially setting the stage for continued outperformance versus Bitcoin next year.
Final Thoughts
- Ethereum’s strong on-chain activity, staking growth, and shrinking Exchange Reserves signal increasing network strength and long-term holder conviction.
- Network upgrades, accumulation trends, and tight liquidity could position ETH to potentially outperform BTC as market rotation favors strong Layer-1s.
