The market right now is moving on anticipation, not action.
You can see it in risk assets this cycle. Unlike past crashes, which followed real shocks, like tariffs, shutdowns, or real-time geopolitical events, investors today seem determined to get ahead of the risk before it even hits.
For instance, even before an official government shutdown is announced, Polymarket is showing the odds of one happening. At press time, they were at 96%, clearly putting Bitcoin [BTC] on edge as traders watch every macro signal closely.
Source: Polymarket
In this context, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release on 13 February at 8:00 AM E.T., has taken on added significance, with Wall Street expecting the CPI to drop from 2.7% to 2.5%.
Naturally, this puts Bitcoin’s $65k floor under the microscope.
Now, the recent U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected and this has already capped the “expectations” for March FOMC rate cuts. So, going into the CPI release, traders are on edge, knowing that even small deviations could trigger sharp moves in Bitcoin.
According to AMBCrypto, the timing couldn’t be worse.
Sentiment is already fragile. The crypto Fear and Greed Index recently hit an all-time low of 5, even lower than during the COVID crash, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s $65k -loor thesis can actually hold.
Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin forecast gains attention
Major players are scaling back their Bitcoin forecasts too.
Standard Chartered, for example, recently cut its end-2026 target from $150k to $100k – Its second reduction in three months. The bigger takeaway is its warning of a BTC correction, potentially all the way down to $50k.
At first glance, that might sound extreme. Bitcoin is still 23% above that level. However, when you layer in the latest CryptoQuant metrics, the call starts to look less like “speculation,” and more like a scenario grounded in data.
Source: CryptoQuant
Based on the numbers, $55k marks Bitcoin’s realized price – A level historically tied to market bottoms. In past cycles, BTC has traded 24-30% below this level before stabilizing. Today, it sits about 18% above it.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered built its $50k thesis around a weaker macro backdrop and delayed Fed rate cuts as key risks. It factored in that Bitcoin has already dropped over 40%, while investors have pulled nearly $8 billion from U.S Spot ETFs.
Add to that the FUD around a government shutdown, the upcoming CPI report, and an ultra-cautious market, and it’s easy to see why the $50k floor is on the radar, putting Bitcoin’s current support levels under pressure.
Final Thoughts
- Anticipation of a government shutdown, the CPI report, and a strong jobs report are putting Bitcoin’s $60k floor under pressure.
- With BTC down over 40% from its October peak and investor outflows from Spot ETFs, the bank’s $50k floor thesis is gaining attention.
