For over a decade, Bitcoin’s [BTC] price was driven by its four‑year halving cycle, fueling major bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each followed by sharp corrections.
However, institutional finance signals that this cycle‑driven era may be coming to an end.
Is now the end of a four-year BTC cycle?
Bernstein, the global research and brokerage firm, has stated that the traditional crypto cycle is dead.
The firm attributes this to the new structural demand driven by Spot Bitcoin ETFs and unprecedented institutional inflow, replacing the old retail-driven, halving-centric volatility.
Hence, Bernstein now forecasts an “elongated bull market,” targeting a $150,000 Bitcoin price by 2026.
As noted by VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, this view holds even after the recent market correction, which Bernstein dismisses as a “shallow consolidation” within a stronger, institutionalized trend.
Sigel said,
“We believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.”
This shift suggests Bitcoin is maturing into a macro-asset, with its future defined less by programmatic scarcity and more by consistent Wall Street demand.
What role is BTC ETF playing in this shift?
The strongest evidence for this shift comes from Spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Sigel highlighted that during a 30% correction, ETF outflows remained below 5% of total assets. This resilience shows that new institutional holders behave as long‑term allocators, rather than short‑term leveraged speculators.
Because of this steady behavior, Bernstein has extended its time horizons and raised its targets.
The firm now projects a sustained multi‑year climb, with Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, $200,000 in 2027, and a long‑term goal of $1 million by 2033.
This outlook breaks away from the old four‑year cycle narrative. Instead, it reframes recent dips as shallow consolidations within a broader structural uptrend.
What’s more?
However, the current market delivers a harsh counterpoint to Bernstein’s thesis, as per AMBCrypto’s recent analysis highlights.
Extreme volatility, thin liquidity, and a series of lower highs since mid-November signal mounting stress.
With BTC’s price dipping to $90,179.65 after a 1.7% drop, at press time, the market is struggling to maintain its composure, contradicting analysts’ argument that the old market structure has broken.
On-chain metrics, including the negative Net Realized Profit/Loss, show that long-term holders are selling at a loss. The market has seen $500 million in leverage liquidations alongside a sharp drop in Open Interest.
Together, these signals suggest that the current volatility may not be random, but rather deliberately engineered.
This has fueled speculation that smart money could be manipulating prices, flushing out leveraged traders in order to accumulate assets at lower levels.
Against this backdrop, investors are left with a pressing question: Will the institutional demand projected by Bernstein stabilize the asset, or is the current price loop simply a calculated bear trap set by whales?
Final Thoughts
- Bernstein’s view of an “elongated bull cycle” suggests Bitcoin may now climb steadily rather than spike and crash.
- Minimal ETF outflows during a 30% correction highlight the emergence of long-term, conviction-driven institutional holders.
