The 2025 cycle brought a clear divergence into the spotlight.
Notably, the entire “safe-haven” narrative came under pressure as macro FUD around President Trump’s tariff threats pushed capital into traditional assets, weighing on risk assets.
On the technicals, gold [XAU] closed Q4 up 12% vs. Bitcoin’s [BTC] 23% dip, confirming the shift. The divergence becomes even more obvious on a 12M basis, where XAU finished the year up 65% vs. BTC’s 6.3% decline.
Source: TradingView (BTC/XAU)
The result? The BTC/XAU ratio reset to pre-election levels.
Simply put, the gold-per-BTC metric compressed by 2x, with buying one BTC requiring half as much gold. Naturally, that leaves a key question on the table – Was the move driven more by BTC weakness or gold strength?
According to AMBCrypto, that rotation dynamic likely dictates Bitcoin’s next directional leg. With the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting approaching, macro flows are back in focus. And, for BTC, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Japan’s gold jump creates pressure on Bitcoin flows
Japan’s economic struggles haven’t gone unnoticed.
From the highest GDP-to-debt ratio to being the largest holder of U.S Treasuries, Japan’s economic bubble has continued to expand. This has kept inflation around 3% while fueling fears of a “broader collapse.”
Against this backdrop, Japan’s gold reserves jumped 60% YoY in 2025 to $120 billion – Double its 2022 level. That’s not random. Gold’s safe-haven appeal is real, creating rotational pressure on Bitcoin as capital flows shift.
Source: The Daily Shot
From a technical lens, the rotation clearly showed up in the XAU/BTC ratio.
On the policy side, however, this could just be the beginning. With Japan’s economy where it is, a BOJ rate hike looks increasingly likely, keeping capital flows and BTC/XAU dynamics in focus as investors adjust positions.
In this context, the recent metal sell-off feels very strategic.
In other words, it’s a setup to buy the “dip” once the BOJ signals a move. For Bitcoin, the 2025 cycle has clearly put these flows front and center, with another rotation from BTC into XAU looking increasingly likely.
Final Thoughts
- Gold outperformed Bitcoin in 2025, compressing the gold-per-BTC metric 2x and highlighting capital flows ahead of the BOJ meeting.
- Economic strain and a 60% YoY surge in gold reserves are reinforcing safe-haven demand.
