The Bitcoin vs. gold debate is back in the chatter. Since the West Asia crisis began, Bitcoin has reinforced its hedge against geopolitical tensions, posting an 8.5% gain. In contrast, gold has dropped 12%, defying expectations that, as a safe haven, it would rally during the war.
In fact, gold has dropped twice as much as U.S. stocks (as tracked by the S&P 500, down 5.6%) over the same period. This was surprising given that gold outperformed BTC in Q4 2025 and early 2026.
Commenting on the divergence, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted,
A lot of people were dumping on Bitcoin for not being a safe haven about three months ago, and gold was. Well, the roles have been reversed. I think you shouldn’t judge these assets over weeks or months anyway.
He added that both are stores of value, noting that one is sturdy while the other is a little younger. In a separate post on X, Balchunas called gold ‘zero-correlated to stocks’ and a great diversified but ‘unreliable hedge.’
BTC vs. gold: ETF inflows diverge
On Tuesday, the 24th of March, Spot BTC ETFs saw a $167.23 million in daily Net Inflows, breaking the three-day streak of outflows. In March alone, the ETF complex has pulled in $2.5B in net inflows and is on the verge of flipping year-to-date (YTD) flows to positive.
In contrast, gold ETFs have recorded outflows of over $22 billion during the same period. If BTC’s resilient performance persists and its ETF inflows flip gold, then the crypto asset could gain more traction in the near term.
That said, the BTC/Gold ratio, which tracks BTC’s relative performance against gold, was still in a multi-year range.
In March, BTC outperformed gold by 32%, but if a 2022-like crypto winter bottom plays out, the ratio could tag the low end of its range at 9.
That would imply a BTC market cycle bottom was close, but an underperformance of +43% relative to gold before a sustainable bounce.
In fact, the above perspective has been widely reinforced by Fidelity, which believes the $60K level to be the likely bottom for the current market cycle. At the time of writing, BTC defended the $68K support and may eye $80K if the ETF inflows extend.
Final Summary
- BTC ETFs have attracted $2.5B in net inflows in March and could flip YTD flows to positive as well.
- However, gold ETFs have seen consistent outflows as BTC emerges as a relatively better safe haven during the West Asia crisis.
