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Dogecoin’s newest market construction is “considerably higher than in prior bull markets,” in keeping with Kevin, the crypto technician identified on X and YouTube as @Kev_Capital_TA. In a video launched Friday, the analyst mapped Dogecoin’s three historic cycles, concluding that the memecoin’s present breakout-and-retest sample locations a long-term Fibonacci extension at $3.80–$3.90 squarely “on the desk”—offered one key situation holds: Bitcoin should hold grinding greater.
“Two cycles in a row, Dogecoin has tagged the 1.618 fib extension,” Kevin reminded viewers. “Right here we’re within the third cycle… we’ve proof to counsel it has occurred 100% of the time. It’s solely two information factors, although, so that would simply not occur this time.”
Why $3.80 Per Dogecoin Is Doable This Cycle
On a log-scale weekly chart, Kevin traced Dogecoin’s first super-cycle—consolidation, breakout, mid-cycle pullback, blow-off prime—culminating on the 1.618 extension. The second cycle repeated the sample, however “Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live hype” punched worth far past the fib goal into euphoric territory.
In the present day’s third cycle, he argued, seems more healthy: successive breakouts and back-tests of the bear-market vary have carved a rising channel of upper highs and better lows anchored by the 200-week EMA/SMA cluster. “This construction seems actually good to me… escape, back-test the 200s, make the next low—it’s textbook.”
On the month-to-month chart, the Relative Power Index is “simply power—fixed greater lows,” nonetheless far beneath the 80-to-90 zone that capped prior cycle tops. Kevin additionally flagged a V-shaped curl within the month-to-month Stoch RSI—a sign that “ought to present the momentum we have to actually get a sturdy run greater” as soon as it crosses the 20 line.
Associated Studying
The 2-week Market Cipher readout reveals three years of progressively stronger momentum waves and money-flow inflows. “That is big-time stuff,” he stated, circling every enlargement. “Momentum is compressing and constructing to some extent the place it’s like, okay, now it’s time to launch it.”
A recent two-week Stoch RSI cross traditionally precedes “bang, large transfer greater,” he added, implying that the post-halving section might usher in Dogecoin’s next parabolic leg.
For merchants fixated on nearer horizons, Kevin highlighted a macro golden pocket stretching from $0.26 to $0.285, bolstered by the day by day 200-SMA at $0.27. That zone caps a growing bull-flag whose measured transfer targets $0.32–0.33. The sample sprang out of an inverse head-and-shoulders accumulation at $0.15, a stage he “collected closely,” now up roughly 60%.
“Deal with resistance as resistance till it isn’t,” he cautioned, noting that Bitcoin dominance close to 64% nonetheless siphons liquidity from altcoins. But he sees “critical indicators” that dominance has printed a neighborhood prime at 65.45%, opening room for a rotation into majors like Ethereum and, by proxy, Dogecoin.
This Wants To Occur
If Bitcoin stability endures and macro circumstances—softening inflation, regular labor information, potential Fed easing—stay supportive, Kevin’s subsequent “essential worth goal” is the 2021 all-time excessive just below $1.00. A decisive break there would flip eyes to the cycle’s 1.618 extension close to $3.80.
Associated Studying
“I’d be shocked at this level if we don’t go to that stage,” he stated, whereas stressing disciplined profit-taking: “There’s nothing worse than driving a transfer all the best way up and never taking income.”
Kevin rebuffed the wilder six-and-seven-dollar predictions circulating on social media however insisted {that a} $3-plus Dogecoin is “completely doable” if Bitcoin pushes towards $200,000, quantitative tightening ends, and a full-blown altcoin season erupts.
Dogecoin stays “probably the most widespread cryptocurrencies on the planet,” the analyst noticed. “When retail comes piling again in, they’re at all times piling again into Dogecoin.” That psychological suggestions loop, mixed with a structurally bullish chart and bettering momentum gauges, underpins his conviction that the memecoin might reprise its position because the spearhead of a broader altcoin surge.
Whether or not the market delivers the required macro tailwinds is the wildcard. However Kevin’s message was unambiguous: for now, Dogecoin’s technical canvas paints a reputable path to $1, and the elusive $3.80 marker “is feasible—if Bitcoin holds floor and the macro stays peachy.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.243.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
