Key takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) is ready to shut August within the purple, its first down-month since April, stoking fears that the downturn may deepen as September begins.
September is normally a nasty month for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has a well-established tendency to slide in September.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed within the purple for eight of the previous twelve months, with common returns slipping about −3.80%.
Market veterans name it the “September Effect,” a month when merchants are likely to lock in income after summer time rallies or reposition portfolios forward of This fall. Since 1928, for example, the S&P 500 index’s returns in September have averaged round -1.20%.
Usually buying and selling in sync with broader threat property, Bitcoin can develop into a sufferer of this seasonal drag.
Nonetheless, since 2013, each inexperienced September for Bitcoin has come solely after a bruising August, a sample that hints of sellers front-running.
Associated: Bitcoin price loses key multiyear support trendline: A classic BTC fakeout?
Analyst Rekt Fencer says {that a} “September dump shouldn’t be coming” this yr, citing Bitcoin’s efficiency in 2017.
The chart overlay of 2017 and 2025 reveals a near-mirror picture. In each cycles, Bitcoin slipped sharply in late August, discovered footing at a key help zone, after which reversed increased.
Again in 2017, that retest marked the ultimate shakeout earlier than BTC worth rocketed to $20,000.
Quick-forward to in the present day, and Bitcoin is as soon as once more hovering close to a multimonth base between $105,000 and $110,000, a degree that could possibly be the launchpad for one more parabolic leg upward.
Bitcoin may retest its document excessive in 4-6 weeks
The $105,000–$110,000 zone acted as resistance earlier within the yr, nevertheless it has now flipped into help, a traditional bullish construction in technical evaluation.
One vital upside sign comes from the so-called “hidden bullish divergence.” Though Bitcoin’s worth has dropped, its relative strength index (RSI), a preferred momentum indicator, hasn’t fallen as a lot.
That normally means the market shouldn’t be as weak as the value chart suggests, hinting that consumers are quietly stepping again in.
Analyst ZYN means that Bitcoin could possibly be on observe for a recent all-time excessive above $124,500 throughout the subsequent 4–6 weeks, owing to those technical patterns that justify a possible rally in September.
A weaker greenback might help Bitcoin bulls in September
Foreign money merchants are turning bearish on the dollar as a slowing US economic system and expected Fed rate cuts weigh on sentiment. They see the buck sliding one other 8% this yr, a decline compounded by Donald Trump’s criticizing the Fed.
As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Greenback Index (DXY) had slipped to −0.25, its weakest degree in two years.
That shift improves Bitcoin’s, in addition to the broader crypto market’s, odds of climbing in September if the greenback’s stoop continues.
“The Fed will begin the cash printers in This fall of this yr,” analyst Ash Crypto said final week, including:
“Two charge cuts imply trillions will movement into the crypto market. We’re about to enter a parabolic part the place Altcoins will explode 10x -50x.”
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
