Bitcoin (BTC) is now flashing its most oversold signal since the COVID-19 crash, raising the odds of a relief rebound toward $70,000 in the coming weeks.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s daily RSI has dropped to around 15.5, its most oversold reading since the March 2020 COVID crash.
- Similar oversold RSI readings in 2020 and February 2026 preceded sharp relief rebounds of about 50% and 30%, respectively.
BTC refuses to go under $60,000 amid extreme oversold conditions
As of Saturday, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) stood near 15.5, well below the 30 level that typically marks oversold conditions and its lowest reading since the March 2020 market crash.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The extremely oversold reading followed a roughly 30% decline in BTC over the past month, as geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, fading hopes for a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut, and panic over Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale weighed on sentiment.
Oversold readings this extreme often appear near seller-exhaustion zones where short-term buyers begin positioning for a relief rebound.
In 2020, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to around 15.56 before BTC rebounded by about 50%, helped by the Federal Reserve’s emergency shift to near-zero interest rates and large-scale bond purchases.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, Bitcoin has also staged sharp rebounds from deeply oversold RSI levels without major macro catalysts.
In February 2026, for instance, BTC’s daily RSI dropped to around 15.86 while price held above the $60,000 support area. The signal preceded a nearly 30% recovery toward $82,850.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin bulls are again defending $60,000, with bears failing to secure a decisive breakdown despite high-volume selling.
Holding above this level increases the odds of an oversold bounce in the coming weeks toward the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA, the green line) at around $70,650.
Conversely, a decisive break below $60,000 would weaken the rebound setup and open the door to a deeper drop toward the mid-$50,000s, where Bitcoin may look for an oversold bounce.
Bitcoin bottom is close: Analyst
Bitcoin short-term holders are realizing their largest losses on record, according to Checkonchain data cited by crypto analyst Scott Melker.
The short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio has dropped to a new all-time low, falling below levels seen in previous Bitcoin drawdowns.
Bitcoin short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio vs. price. Source: Checkonchain
The metric tracks whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or loss. A deeply negative reading means newer holders are exiting below their cost basis, signaling panic selling.
Melker also noted that roughly 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders is now underwater, above the post-FTX peak and the highest level since the March 2020 COVID crash.
Related: Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC
Similar stress has appeared near past capitulation zones. Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 after FTX before rallying roughly 690% to around $126,000 in 2025. After the COVID crash, BTC rose about 1,700% from $3,800 to nearly $69,000.
“Sentiment has tracked price almost perfectly,” Melker said, adding:
“Traders were euphoric at the May peak, then hit peak despair on June 3. That’s usually when the bottom is close. Usually.”
