Dogecoin’s next major move may depend less on hype and more on exhaustion. A new technical analysis from crypto analyst Cryptollica proposes that the leading meme coin is now trading at another cycle-bottom zone, and the weekly chart is showing the same kind of RSI washout and long compression that previously appeared before notable Dogecoin rallies.
Dogecoin’s Fourth Cycle Bottom Comes Into View
Dogecoin has spent the better part of the past year being written off. Sentiment has collapsed, price has compressed, and the crowd that once celebrated the meme coin has gone silent. However, a structure that has correctly identified every major Dogecoin bottom since 2015 is saying this is precisely the moment worth watching.
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This structure analysis in question is built around the idea that Dogecoin’s chart is not only a price chart but also a record of market cycle psychology. According to analyst Cryptollica, the 2015 bottom was a period of disbelief, the 2020 bottom was boredom, and the 2022 bottom was anger. This makes the current setup the fourth cycle bottom, where sentiment appears exhausted while the bullish structure is resetting.
The weekly chart shared by the analyst shows Dogecoin moving along a long-term rising support structure, with each major low forming during a period when the weekly RSI dropped into or near oversold territory. Interestingly, the latest RSI reading shown on the chart shows the Dogecoin price bouncing from that RSI in early 2026 and slowly trending upwards.
Where The Structure Says The Bottom Is
Dogecoin is currently looking like it is registering a bottom around $0.10. However, the most important point in this analysis is that timing the Dogecoin bottom is not confirmed by price alone. Timing the Dogecoin bottom comes from a combination of three things: an oversold weekly RSI, long compression, and price holding around the cycle support zone.
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The first signal is already visible in the chart. Dogecoin’s weekly RSI has fallen into the same region as previous cycle lows. The second signal is compression. Dogecoin has spent months grinding through a wide base around $0.10 instead of moving in a clean upward trend. That may look weak on the surface, but in cycle analysis, extended compression often means sellers are losing control gradually.
The third signal is confirmation. In order for the bottom argument to become stronger, Dogecoin would need to hold the current support region at $0.10 and begin forming higher lows on the weekly chart. A move back above the nearest major resistance zones at $0.15 and $0.2 would add more weight to the claim that the cycle bottom has been made.
That means $0.10 is now one of the most important areas for the Dogecoin price. If the fourth cycle bottom is confirmed, then the question changes from where Dogecoin is now to how it has rallied from similar structural positions. Cryptollica’s analysis points to a top target above $2. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.104, back to retesting $0.10 from an intraday high of $0.1126.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
